Some of you will know that one of my favourite strats is to lay the draw from the 70th minute if the scores are level. If you lay at under 2, you only need a 50% hit rate to generate a profit.... or do you? You would be extremely silly not to green up immediately after a goal, so you almost certainly won't be able to green for your full lay stake. So it's probably safer to assume a profit if you lay at odds of 1.8 or lower.

I was totally upside down on a cs trade the other night and think I might have stumbled across a viable alternative. The game was 0-0 and I was green on that score and had good greens on 1-2,1-1 and 2-1. It got to the 80th minute at 0-0 and I had just hedged to green the 0-0 and show a modest profit. Of course the only goal of the game came as I was waiting to be matched! Sod's Law version 1!

But to every cloud there is a silver lining......

The price of 2-0 and 1-1 absolutely tumbled as the other team scrambled for an equalizer leaving themselves open on the break. The other nearby scores came in a bit and I was able to recover a bit by laying 1-1 and 1-2, 2-1 but still took a bath!

So, what's my idea?

70 mins, scores level. Back the next scoreline but one - ie if 0-0, back 2-0, 1-1 and 0-2.

The maths (assuming game 0-0):

LTD @ 1.8 for £10 - liability £8, goal - hedge for £8 or so

Back £2 each 2-0, 0-2, 1-1 @ say 20, 15, 28 - liability £6

Goal at say 80 minutes: 1-0

Lay 2-0 and 1-1 at about 4 and 6 respectively: total green (including lost stake on 0-2) £11.45

So you're £2 to the good if it stays 0-0 and £3 or so better off if it doesn't!

The only real downside I can see is a goal coming so late that the market doesn't get time to reform - so to guard against that I would suggest laying current score for your total back stakes at about 1.2 (£1.2 liability in this example).

Any thoughts?

Gun, you mean back the draw? how would you otherwise profit from 0-0?

No, I mean lay the draw. If the game is 0-0 you lose! That's the gamble I'm afraid! But by entering the market so late in the game you really need to win only 50% of the trades to be ahead overall.

There was a classic example of this last night - Nantes v Arles. 0-0 85 gone, goal to Nantes, 1-0. The 2-0 price immediately prior to the goal was 780! Came in to 14, but the goal really was too late to capitalise on it. I'm convinced there's a profit here and will continue to look at it.

Ok, I see. Think you might be on to something here. Do you have any stats on goals being scored, say after 60min or 70min? Is it more than a 50% chance?

Not sure as yet, ads. Still in the 'work in progress' tray! The problem with 60 mins is I'm not sure the odds would be high enough - it's from 65 on that we get the steady drift of these scores. Of course you also give yourself 10 mins longer for the whole thing to work - so it might be swings and roundabouts. Will look at it.



I'm in profit overall on these late game draw lays, so by definition, goals must be scored in at least 50% of these games. This idea is about maximising that return and minimising risk, but I believe the basic principal is sound.

So about 30% from 70 minutes... of course in this example we are only concerned with goals in games currently tied - doubt that info is easy to extrapolate.

But I'm now wondering whether a simple lay of the current score would be profitable from say 75 mins..........

what about using the lay the draw + back 1-1 but at the 65th minute?

You could then let it run for your full stake if a goal is scored, scratch trade if goes to 1-1 and only hedge the trade if the score becomes 2-1 at any point to prevent the 2-2 danger?

Wild guess would say the draw would be just under evens but the 1-1 should still be around 4-5 ?

When the score is 1-1 at 65` odds, say, 3.1....the drraw is ALWAYS lower by some margin, abt 2.6.
I`ve often done what is , in effect, an arb of those two markets.
BACK 1-1 and LTD
The natural frenzy on CS/Match Odds/Unders lasts for about 10 mins as the tick drop rate doubles to about 5/6 ticks per minute
Most traders at this point in the match are looking to close their trades - green or red
The two markets come into alignment about the 75/80` mark so you need too stop there.

It works? Yes...but the real danger is 2-2 (or 3-3) as you lose on both markets
I definitely go for it big time IF I have backed 2-2 pre match