OK. As I've often said, I'm a punter/trader not a trader. So, for me, I'm prepared to back my judgement and will often let my trades run - It's not often that I will trade out at HT for a small red because a trade is going against me (have done it sometimes though, just not often). I just feel that to trade out at HT is not for me...there is still half the game to be played (at least...added time can mount up to quite a few minutes), and often there are goals scored after the 70 min point when a lot of traders do 'get out'. Basically, I'm prepared to lose the small % of my bank stakes that I have placed on my trades...though I'm not expecting to lose it all!

Anyway, I looked at tonight's football matches: Birmingham v Blackburn, Bolton v West Ham, Man U v Wolves and Sunderland v Villa.
I then looked at the quoted BF odds for each game: Birmingham 2.36 Blackburn 3.45, Bolton 2.16 West Ham 3.85, Man U 1.19 Wolves 25 and Sunderland 3.0 Villa 2.7.

So...what to do? I thought about just going for the Man U 'nil' scores i.e 2-0, 3-0, but decided that was too risky and the Sunderland game looked like a draw to me (so I just did 1-1 on that game with no ins, traded out as soon as the 1st goal went in).

How about the other 2 games? In the Birmingham v Blackburn game, Birmingham were clearly the home favourites at 2.36, but Blackburn were not too far away at 3.45. there were 'similar' odds for the Bolton v West Ham game (2.16 and 3.85).

I looked at the stats for these 2 games and my feeling was that goals were possible. So, I decided to use the same strat for both games. Back 1-1 and 2-1 (no ins). My thinking was that the home side normally holds an advantage, but the away sides were good enough to score against them...so, 1-1, with the the 2-1 covering the home side advantage...

The strat worked out well. Birmingham went 1 up in the 1st half...then got a second in the 2nd Half after which I greened up. In the Bolton game the score was 0-0 at HT. The punter in me 'stayed in' and Bolton duly scored a short while into the 2nd Half...nice...but then the icing on the cake, as West Ham equalised...lovely...greened up.

So...the strategy is: Pick a match where the 2 teams are 'reasonably' matched but the Home team is a clear favourite. Look at the stats to determine whether or not the game looks to be one with goals in it. If you think there will be goals then back the 1-1 and the 2-1 scorelines (if 'risk averse' then go for ins on u1.5)

I often do something broadly similar in those games - 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2. Ideal result is dog scores first, faves equalise dog scores again - great (and ideally faves equalise to 2-2!!!), but fave goes 2-0 up can normally scratch.

As far as I remember the 1-1 started as you suggested Ads at about 7.2/7.4.

If the fav does score early then there can be a problem of course...so, it's a matter of holding nerve perhaps...wating for either the 2-0 (kills the 1-1, but brings the 2-1 into play) or maybe the equaliser, or the worst case scenario, no more goals!

As I point out, I go with my judgement...if I get it wrong, then so be it...hopefully the times I get it wrong are less often than getting it right!

As ever, it all depends on other variables too...am I actually watching the game? or am I listening to it? or am I 'blind'?

As a punter/trader I do form an opinion about a sporting event....the beauty about discovering trading is that it has allowed me to look after my bank in a far better way than simply punting...currently my bank is quite healthy (have lost 3 banks earlier this year), and I'm really enjoying the whole trading experience...chat rooms, forums etc...it's wonderful!

That's good to hear and am sure your trading has improved as have others in the last 3 or 4 months.

Was saying to bingo earlier often walk past a William Hills in the village and they always put the big sign up saying back 1-1 with £10 and win £60 or 2-1 with £10 and win £80. How many of their punters are aware of the fact you don't need to get the exact score to win money via trading?

Massive market out there, wish we could exploit it somehow.

I've also been pondering the risks/benefits of the 2-1 strategy. Problems are a very quick goal for the favourite where the odds don't move a great deal (particularly when you have to cover the cost of insurance as well) and obviously when the dog scores. To get the maximum value I am looking at backing 2-1 (and possibly 1-2) after 25 or 30 mins where there has been no goal but is a game where you would expect them. That would certainly maximise the profits for any goal. Probably looking at games where the fav is 1.8 - 2.3 or so.

Insurance would possibly be on 0-0 and probably get out at 55 mins.

Not had the time to try it out yet. Can anyone see any obvious problems with this?

I'd also echo Dak's comments about the usefulness of the general advice on blog, forum and chat and it certainly brings a bit of entertainment and a community feeling to learning how to trade.

i do exactly that quite often, but you won't see massive drifts in those prices 'til just after h/t

Cheers Gundulf that's reassuring. Watching the odds on the Spurs game tonight confirmed what you say about the odds. Was going to try it out on that game but got a phone call would have worked nicely.

Do you use insurance on 0-0 or on anything else for that matter?