I can't claim this one for myself but I read an article about a thread on the bf forum.

The writer had lost so much money backing football teams in m/o and horses to be placed at between 1.9 and 2 that he started to lay them. He uses a martingale system and looks to make 6% of his bank (inc commission) with each bet. This gives 5 attempts - but his experience is that he has never had the run of 5 lays that would bust him.

I am a firm believer in laying short prices for small liabilities so I paper traded this afternoon. Bet and leave - 5 races with qualifying horses - 1 placed the others didn't - 80% strike rate. But.... of all the qualifiers EVERY single one drifted sufficiently in running to make me hear the jingle of coin!

His rule for footie is very simple - lay any HOME team between 1.9 and 2.

Thoughts?

I'm not a fan of any blanket 'system' for any sport. There have been several 'shocks' this season so far with doubtless more to come. The only thing I would say as a general trend, is that my bias is always looking to lay any team (or horse, whatever...) with odds less that 2...but only after looking at stats etc, never blind.

I'm inclined to agree about 'blanket systems' Dak, and appreciate that 5 races is in no way a statistical tour de force, but it's just one of those little things that you notice as an aside to the main thrust - namely those prices appeared, today at any rate, to be very tradeable!