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Scotty_73
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Post subject: Backing 2-0 or 3-0 with lay fav in NG Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 7:26 am |
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Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2009 2:28 pm
Posts: 18
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as per advice on chatroom I tried this out last night on both Real and Barca games. on Real I had 3-0 covered and same with Barca.
Even though both teams went up 2-0 this ended up pretty much a scratch trade for me. I think that the issue is that you are looking for heavy fav game to give you low enough odds to cover NG but this has the downside that you wont see big enough drops in prices to give you net green. Example from Barca game
I backed 0-3 @ 11 for 10Eur and covered NG @ 1.4 and then again @ 1.66 giving me in total a loss of 10.60Eur 0-3 came in from 11 to 4.94 allowing me to lay off for 12Eur profit. Yes it was 1.40 overall profit but there are easier ways to make 1.40. Same was also true with my 3-0 on Real which ended a scratch trade.
I am sure if you wanted to hang on uninsured for a while you would make profit (like Real game for example where price eventually came down as game finished 2-0 but I dont like the idea of losing green like that especially when you have already twice insured it)
Ads/Bingo what situations are needed to make this a more profitable adventure?
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adster
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Post subject: Re: Backing 2-0 or 3-0 with lay fav in NG Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 11:24 pm |
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| Site Admin |
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Joined: Thu Dec 03, 2009 3:42 pm
Posts: 164
Location: Surrey
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This works best whereby heavily faves are backed a couple of hours before for certain scores. I did the 2 games above the night before and was left with free bets on 2-0 in one game and 2-0 and 3-0 in the other. By laying a heavy fave in the NG market you are trying to nick a few ticks as the scoreline comes in so you can lay that off and then back the NG market which would have remained static.
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Scotty_73
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Post subject: Re: Backing 2-0 or 3-0 with lay fav in NG Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 6:34 am |
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Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2009 2:28 pm
Posts: 18
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Ads,
so are you saying this is primarily a pre match tactic as i dont quite understand your reply. Did you back 2-0 and 3-0 heavily before and then lay off pre-kick off for same stake giving you free bet. Then you put your NG lay while you waited for a green on your free bet then you hedge out both?
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