As mentioned in the chat room, I've been test a strategy recently that I think has promise, though it is still very much a work in progress. In the best of Nugget Crew tradition, I've given it an obscure name so that no one will remember what the heck it is!

The idea is to back the over 2.5 goals in-play and do so in stages so that you benefit from the rising odds. In addition, if the match is still 0-0 after 30 mins or so, to lay the under 1.5 goals, also in stages to get benefit from those odds falling.

Now, both of these options require a goal to be scored. So we need some form of protection and that is to cover the 0-0 pre-match so that you total potential stake from the two drip fed bets above at a minimum is insured.

What we're looking for is a goal in the latter stages of the first half early in the second. Trade out all positions after the first goal or around 70 mins if still 0-0.

An early goal will see you scratch or come out with a small loss. Similarly, trading out at 70 mins or so will see a small loss or scratch. I estimate a profit of anything up to 50% can be achieved if the timing of a goal is such that all the drip fed bets are submitted just before it.

I'm still in two minds if an early goal should see me hang on for a second. Ignoring the first game I tried this on where I got my sums wrong, the three other games have seen goals in the first 20 mins resulting in 2 x £2 losses and a £2 win. Porroh in the chat room yesterday had a nice 28% profit in the PSV game.

I've been looking at matches where the over 2.5 goals is better than evens pre-off and the 0-0 is greater than 10.0. The PSV game had over 2.5 goals at 1.7ish pre-ko so perhaps that is worth considering, particularly as the 0-0 is much higher.

Anyway, there you have it. Any feedback is welcome.

This is my thinking at the moment, but as it is still evolving it may not be at a later date.

For both the over 2.5 and under 1.5 markets, I'm looking to drip feed a maximum of £20 each. Therefore the 0-0 back stake should be enough to cover at least £40 in this case. Actually, I've been working to a 0-0 profit of £50.

Only once have I had all £40 in the market. This was the Aston Villa match at the weekend where I only had £20 covered by the 0-0. As a result, I traded out of all three markets after 70 mins for a £20 loss. Since then I've been covering 0-0 for £50ish. Three matches all of which saw an early goal before I had all of my over 2.5 stake and certainly before the under 1.5 lay started kicking in. As a result, I traded out after the first goal in each of these for hedged returns of £2, -£1 and -£1.

Prior to that I've only tried 1 other match where I hadn't covered 0-0 and made a total profit of £7.

I did the Nigeria game today with a very rather disappointing £1.50 profit, trading out immediately after the first goal. I'll be in the chat room this evening for the big matches tonight.

I seem to be suffering from early goals all the time. A £2.50 loss in the Villa v Blackburn game, or that's what I traded out for. As luck would have it, Evo's drip feed doesn't cancel on a suspension and I forgot to do it manually, so it stuck another £10 into the overs market which saw me make a small profit on the game.

My intention with this strategy has always been to trade out after the first goal or 70 mins if still 0-0. If covering the 0-0 and an early goal goes in, I may only have £5-£10 on the overs which isn't enough to make much of a profit, if any.

Even the Nigeria game, which had a goal on the stroke of half time - the ideal condition because all of my overs stake was in as well as my unders stake - only saw a profit of £1.50ish. Granted, I had inadvertently covered the 0-0 for a little more than expected, but I managed to negate most of that in-play. I was also downstairs when the goal went in, so I probably missed the optimum trade out position once the market reformed. Still, given the timing of the goal, I'd expect significantly more than that.

Anyway, I need to rethink some of this strategy, particularly when there's an early goal as recent games have shown. Perhaps by backing the 1 goal scoreline after the goal. The other issue is whether I hang on for a second goal. If that's the case, I think there's better strategies out there.

How about backing small for a goal 0 to 10 mins Al? How were the games yesterday, early goal in one of them. :shock:

I was at work yesterday Ads, and didn't bother with the Spanish cup games in the evening. I haven't thought much about this over the past couple of days - too many other things on the go at the moment.

Back to this for the Chelsea v Birmingham game tonight and yet again, an early goal means a small loss because I only had £5 on the over 2.5 goals when the first went in after 6 mins. Very frustrating.

After another flop today, I think it's time to put Bambi to bed.

I've been frustrated recently due to the number of early(ish) goals that have meant me barely having any of my over 2.5 goals stake dripped into the market. As a result, trading out after that goal means either a small profit, or more usually, a loss of £2 or so. No big deal, but frustrating when not making a profit.

To counter that, I've been dripping the money in faster. The trouble with that is if a goal is scored after all the money is in, and particularly before the drip feed on the under 1.5 lay kicks in, the over 2.5 goal odds do not contract enough for a profit to be made. This happened on the Liverpool v Bolton match today and I decided to wait for a second goal or until the odds went out such that redding up gave me a £10 loss overall. Unfortunately for me, the latter happened, and, as is the way of these things, a second goal was scored a few minute later.

So, what looked like a good plan when I first posted, has turned into a bit of a red herring.