How to choose the scores to trade?

rmachado · **Joined:** Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:13 pm **Posts:** 18

Hello to all

Altough my time is limited to follow the chat and the games proposed I'm trying to develop a strategie to choose games when I can follow them.

This leads me to the question that is in the subject.

What are the primary scores we should look and how to choose them?

Are 1-0, 2-0 and the opposite 0-1, 0-2 good results?

Normally I choose a fav game to bet on (odds arround 1.5).

Regards
Rmachado

adster · **Posted:** Mon Dec 07, 2009 12:51 pm

Hi mate,

Excellent question and hopefully the other guys will chip in like dak and co.

Personally tend to look at stats, head to heads, recent form and take a stance on what I think will happen, will there be goals or no goals. IF goals then will look to cover 2-1, 2-2, 1-2 possibly. Sometimes depending on mood/time will stick in 5 or 6 scores, watch the game and then back/lay off etc.

If of course the initial thoughts are wrong will try and limit losses, come out scratch or of course turn it round for profit.

I put up on the blog site stats for 10 games and there was certainly patterns that could be observed and help make an initial judgment. I will update this for 15 games too next day or so.

http://tradingfootballmarkets.wordpress ... -10-games/

Who else does what?

rmachado · **Joined:** Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:13 pm **Posts:** 18

Hi adster

At the moment I have to say I'm going with the "favorite will win" choosen method, and try to work around 1-0, 2-0, 2-1.. the problem I experienced with this approach is that .. it's football and often we have a goal form the underdog which blows up our strategy.
For example yesterday I had the time to trade the Villareal-Getafe. Covered 0-0 (to do a little scalping), 1-0, 2-1. Small stakes (4,4,5 €) but... the underdog scored on minute 3... so I was already losing at that minute. Waited a bit and Villa scored at 17' so I closed the 2-1 at 20 minutes, after that I scalped the 1-1 to lower the red and managed to put it at about -5€ then... I got greedy and tried to scalp more and the getafe got a penalty kick and Villa a red card.. so i try to chase the loss and managed to "improve" the red to 23,30 €...

This was the reason I asked.

I can find 3 or four mistakes I made in this game and the unlucky event of a goal in the early minutes.

The first mistake was be greedy.
The second was trading without livefeed which may not be necessary if we are not greedy.
The third maybe the scores traded where bad choosen.
The fourth, Spanish football tends to be a little more impredictable that other leagues.

This is my main doubts at this CS trading affairs. The "correct" choice of the scores. This and the "how much" in each score.

PS - Villareal did win 3-2.

adster · **Posted:** Mon Dec 07, 2009 6:44 pm

rmachado wrote:

Hi adster

At the moment I have to say I'm going with the "favorite will win" choosen method, and try to work around 1-0, 2-0, 2-1.. the problem I experienced with this approach is that .. it's football and often we have a goal form the underdog which blows up our strategy.
For example yesterday I had the time to trade the Villareal-Getafe. Covered 0-0 (to do a little scalping), 1-0, 2-1. Small stakes (4,4,5 €) but... the underdog scored on minute 3... so I was already losing at that minute. Waited a bit and Villa scored at 17' so I closed the 2-1 at 20 minutes, after that I scalped the 1-1 to lower the red and managed to put it at about -5€ then... I got greedy and tried to scalp more and the getafe got a penalty kick and Villa a red card.. so i try to chase the loss and managed to "improve" the red to 23,30 €...

This was the reason I asked.

I can find 3 or four mistakes I made in this game and the unlucky event of a goal in the early minutes.

The first mistake was be greedy.
The second was trading without livefeed which may not be necessary if we are not greedy.
The third maybe the scores traded where bad choosen.
The fourth, Spanish football tends to be a little more impredictable that other leagues.

This is my main doubts at this CS trading affairs. The "correct" choice of the scores. This and the "how much" in each score.

PS - Villareal did win 3-2.

Well by covering 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 the dog scores first you have lost 2 out of immediately. Why not consider backing say 2-0 instead with the 2-1? If score goes to 1-0 you can always back that too or reduce green on 2-0 to cover 1-0.

Scalping blind for many traders is dangerous, it's is something bingo does very well but some don't like doing it as you don't know where the ball is in play etc.

Spanish games generally are high scorers. French and Italian low scorers.

Why the overs market is effective as it doesn't matter who scores the goals!!

rmachado · **Joined:** Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:13 pm **Posts:** 18

adster wrote:

Why not consider backing say 2-0 instead with the 2-1? If score goes to 1-0 you can always back that too or reduce green on 2-0 to cover 1-0.

Ok, it would be safer to back 2-0 and 2-1 altough in my example the 2-0 would also be "lost".

But backing the 2-0 can not be a problem if the 0-0 persists?

And yes Spain league tends to have more goals, which makes it harder to trade low scores (1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 0-0).

adster · **Posted:** Tue Dec 08, 2009 2:33 pm

Trouble with backing any to 0 score is you lose one of your 2 if dog scores first. So by backing say 2-1, 3-1 and perhaps 3-0, (bigger odds so less stakes needed) it makes more sense.

DakC47 · **Joined:** Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:10 pm **Posts:** 43

My starting point is to look at the stats for the games of the day. There are lots of stat sites, so I limit myself to looking at 3. I take the 'consensus' opinion and add to that anything that I know about the clubs concerned (very recently reported injuries, any board or supporter 'troubles' i.e. the 'intangibles' that I feel may affect the game).

I then make a decision about how I think the various games will turn out. High scoring, low scoring or draw. I then note what I consider to be the best game(s) of the day. Then I place my pre-match trades, sometimes with insurance, sometimes without. Very recently, following advice from the Nuggets, I only insure to cover about 50% of my stake (I'm expecting the trade to be successful after all!).

My preference is to trade while watching a game on tv if possible. I then trade out as the game progresses depending on any goals going in and my assessment of how I see the game developing.

Seemple...

How to choose the scores to trade?

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