Hi guys,

I thought it would be good to have a LTD thread on here. Who of you use it regularly and under what conditions (insurance or not, not above certain odds, staking etc.)

We saw 2 LTD tips from the Nuggets this weekend coming coming in nicely. Personally I was only on the Bristol City v WBA trade.

I'm working on a little system for lay the draw using various stats. I have been hit in the past quite a few times doing LTD on bigpriced draws (4.5 and above) so I tend to not lay the draw above 4.00 from now. I rate the games from my system and only play the games from the start with maximum rating and do LTD on games with a lower rating if 0-0 at half-time (Man City v Liverpool was in my system for a h/t Lay, that cost me). So far it looks promising, but of course I'm curious about other experiences on the LTD strategy.

There is quite a good thread on the UK-betting-tips forum about LTD although the system there has an other approach than mine.

Let's have some opinions here about LTD.

Cheers,

Ray

Thanks rbaars for starting a thread about LTD.
I think most of us have discovered trading because of this strategy we found somewhere on the internet,and in the begining we all thought
we found the solution to our economical problems by simply trading the draw.

Now we all know it is not so simple.
One problem was the underdog scoring first but this is solved with the metaltone strategy.
Biggest problem is the 0-0.Covering it in the CS market is no good because its eating all the profit.
Trading out when draw odds hit 2.0 costs money and you will find out that a goal will be scored 2 minutes after you have exited.Frustrating.
Solution is a free bet on 0-0 but scalping is too risky and stressfull.
Somebody on another forum said something about backing under 1.5 under2.5 under3.5&4.5 as a free LTD insurance but he did not explain the timing,the stakes and the logic behind this combination.

I am sure that,if the great minds of the forum unite,we can solve the biggest problem in LTD trading.The dreaded 0-0.

well, turbo, I'm afraid I can't lay the 0-0 bogey to rest! Something baars and I used to do in the early nugget days was to look for games where you can ltd exactly when the 70 minute 'redders' are taking the pain! The problem with laying anything is that the liabilities can be high - 70 minute lays give nearly a quarter of the game to get a result and can normally be achieved at or around evens - so you only need a 50% hit rate for it to work. If a goal occurs the odds usually shoot right out as it's so late in the game that you can usually green for close to your original stake.

True Gun, we had a good time doing that eh Unfortunatley I remember that Sporting Lisbon cost us quite a bit back then.

What I have been doing with my LTD's lately is to look at matches where stats tell me that 0-0 is (almost) impossible. To be honest I don't get lots of matches where I lay the draw from the start, most of them are done at half-time when the score is 0-0. The beauty of entering then is that a goal be either side will work in my favour. Of course I will take a hit now and then but I hope to win more then I lose .

I understand what you mean Turbo but 0-0 will always be my biggest danger in my system because I won't use insurance. Especially with the half time LTD's insurance will eat a big part of my profit. I do think that when you Lay the Draw from the start at bigger prices (>4.00) and you expect goals that 1-1 can be of some help.

With low priced LTD's from the start (<3.75) and the dog scoring you could hegde out for a scratch or a small loss trade without doing Metaltone. To be honest I have never used the Metaltone but I want to try it for my system too.

Anyway, hope to have some more opinions about (the oldest) footballtradingstrategy

Cheers

Ah yes! The heady days of Sporting Lisbon letting us down big time!

I'm still up overall with this technique - the key is to green immediately there is a goal - don't be greedy!

which technique do you mean gundulf? lay the draw all round? or waiting till second half?

What Gundulf means getting on when LTD-traders take the loss. So that will be around the 1.90-2.00 mark. Downside is the amount of time left to play which will be approx 20-25 mins. Upside you will ride the minutes in the game where statisticly a lot of goals are scored. A goal by either side will give you a nice green

@Gun; do you still use the strategy a lot?

Either Human - ltd in Brazillian cup game at 2-2 at 80 minutes the other night, went to 87th and one team went a goal up. Whilst I was being greedy and waiting for a few more ticks the other lot equalised! Take the green when it's there is my advice!



Baars, always looking for low liability laying opportunities - ltd, correct score or u2.5 / 4.5 goals.

The good auld LTD strat.many a mans torment! and heres why.no doubt when you first seen this cant loose system the promise was after the goal has been scored in a match with 2 equal teams that the draw odds would rocket to 6s which was great because you had layed the draw at 3.4...and the truth being that once apon a time it did,the draw would jump to around 6s instead of the measly 4.5 you get now a day but due to the saturation of this system it doesn move so high....
so this is what i do... usually in italian football( low draw odds and can swing either way)instead of arbing up for skimpy profit after 1 goal i back the draw with all the stake hoping the game will come back to 1-1 and believe me this happens alot. hopefully by then the draw is even money but usually you r greening for anythin from 40% to 70% of your intial stake like so

lay draw for a ton at 3.4 ish ... LAY 100 at 3.4 =240 liability
GOAL goes in draw move to 4.4 sometimes more BACK 100 AT 4.4 = THIS MEAN YOU HAVE A TON GREEN ON THE DRAW
GOAL to the oposit team about 60 mins in ... draw goes to even money you earn 50 quid

AS for the dreaded 0-0 draw .i usually scalp but you could throw 15quid on 0-0 at say 11s or so meaning uir good for 150 ish and back an even amount of goals with a ton at even money.therfore ur covered if its 0-0. if it all goes to plan and there is a goal before the 70 min then you can cancell out ur even number of goal bet by backing or laying the current score at 70 mins

this is a good earner

Good variation for even teams. I will have to give it a go



What do you do if there is "Even / Odd" goals market? For example, Atl Madrid v Liverpoool this Thu, there doe snot appear to be any such market. I do see it for other matches though, but there seems to be no pattern as to which matches have it and which ones don't

Thanks for your input!

-SilkBC