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 Post subject: Laying the dog and the next to score
Posted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 9:24 pm 
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Here's the basics of the strategy I mentioned in the chatroom the other day. Please note, I've not tested this myself. I came across it ages ago and never got around to trying it.

Look for matches where the favourite is 1.7 or less to score the first goal. Lay the fav to score first and lay the dog in the match win market. If 0-0 at half time, you can trade out both markets for a profit, but in any event, get out by the 75th min. Note that the lay of the fav to score first is an insurance bet and should cover the liability of the other bet, or a fair portion of it at least.

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 Post subject: Re: Laying the dog and the next to score
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 6:14 pm 
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what odds should we look for on the dog in the match market?


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 Post subject: Re: Laying the dog and the next to score
Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 8:51 pm 
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Human123 wrote:
what odds should we look for on the dog in the match market?

ive been doing this strat for about a year on and off with mixed results,the next goal market is quite poor for liquiity,but if you go for games where the dog is between 7-9 in match odds,and the fav is 1.5-1.6 ish,lay the fav in NG market say for£20 at as low price you can get,probrably about 1.40-1.50,then lay the dog in match odds at as low as you can get for the same stake £20,liability £140-£180 depending what you laid at and wait for a goal,which is likely to be the favs,which is good for this strat,as you only lose £10 ish for the lay of favs in NG market,but pick up about £13 green on all match outcomes,so a small profit,if 0-0 at half time i get out for small profit,as if the dog scores first in second half their odds come in too far.If the dog scores first in the first half you can get out with a scratch or a small loss,its not a bad strat if you do games where the 1.5 fav is at home and you really feel they will score first in the first half. :mrgreen:


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 Post subject: Re: Laying the dog and the next to score
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 9:25 am 
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I'd be looking for dog odds in the region of 6 - 8ish. You also want the next goal odds to be as low as possible, but they are effectively linked so as one goes down, the other goes up. For example, in today's Arsenal v Everton match, the lay of Arsenal in the next goal market is available at 1.44 but the lay of Everton in the match market is 11.0 as I type this. That's too high for me.

The problem for me, and the reason I didn't pursue this was for the reasons mentioned by devomark. Lack of liquidity in the next goal market. That was over a year ago and might have changed since then. Looking at the aforementioned matched as I type this just after 9am, it appear that it may be the same situation. I'll check back nearer KO to what improvement there is, if any.

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 Post subject: Re: Laying the dog and the next to score
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 12:57 pm 
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The NG market hardly moves for say a heavily fave in the first 10 mins or so so why not use it and perhaps back cs scores that will come in in the first 10 mins like the 1-0. And perhaps even consider a little on a goal in 0 to 10 to cover you if there is a goal which would not bring the 1-0 price in. ;)


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 Post subject: Re: Laying the dog and the next to score
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 1:19 pm 
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As new to trade at the NextGoal market and the CS market a question popped up in my head.
What happens with the odds at 1-1 when a dog scores in matches that goes in this range?


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 Post subject: Re: Laying the dog and the next to score
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 1:42 pm 
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Nick wrote:
As new to trade at the NextGoal market and the CS market a question popped up in my head.
What happens with the odds at 1-1 when a dog scores in matches that goes in this range?


The NG market moves very little first 15 mins of a game. The later the game goes on the NG moves alot more as there is less chance of a goal going in.

Not sure what you're asking here Nick. The 1-1 scoreline tends to come in IF the dogs scores first at 0-0, if the fave scores first the 1-1 will most probably move out or at worst remain the same.

The 1-1 price normally holds for up to 35 minutes sometimes before drifting out.


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 Post subject: Re: Laying the dog and the next to score
Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 11:42 am 
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Dubbel post


Last edited by Nick on Mon Jan 11, 2010 12:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Laying the dog and the next to score
Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 11:45 am 
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Nick wrote:
adster wrote:
Nick wrote:
As new to trade at the NextGoal market and the CS market a question popped up in my head.
What happens with the odds at 1-1 when a dog scores in matches that goes in this range?


The NG market moves very little first 15 mins of a game. The later the game goes on the NG moves alot more as there is less chance of a goal going in.

Not sure what you're asking here Nick. The 1-1 scoreline tends to come in IF the dogs scores first at 0-0, if the fave scores first the 1-1 will most probably move out or at worst remain the same.

The 1-1 price normally holds for up to 35 minutes sometimes before drifting out.


As I said, im new so please have patience with my perhaps stupid questions :lol:

I was thinking if the dog scores, the 1-1 would drop. Would that work as ins, instead of the NG where we loose our stake?
I dont know how mutch it will come down, maybe to small drops so the stake will be to large to make the green cover the ltd-stake?

Maybe the 0-1?

edit: ok i thinked a little bit more. If dog scores and you have a ins stake at 0-1 or 1-1, if not hedging just sell on the 0-1/0-0? then you have a bigger green at 0-1/0-0 ?

just wild thinking this but hey, im trying ;)


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 Post subject: Re: Laying the dog and the next to score
Posted: Sun Jan 17, 2010 3:23 pm 
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The thing with this strat Nick is it does work as it is, most of the time because if you get out before HT, you should be ok whatever has happened,but if you cover 1-1 and the fav scores u lose your lay fav bet in NG market and also the 1-1 will blow out or at least wont come in as the market expects the fav who is now in front to score more,i done this strat today on AV-WHU got out at 35 mins with a small £2.50 profit as it was 0-0 at the time and if WHU scored 35-45-mins i would have got a small loss or scratch,if i had of stayed in i would have got more at 45 as it was 0-0,but i was happy at that point to exit, the stakes i used were lay villa in NG market for£20 @1.51 and laid WHU ln match odds @7 for £19,its simple,(how i like it)with small profits but if it keeps working i will up the stakes,also make sure its a substantial game with good liquidity,all the best.


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