Just been having a look at the CL draw and it got me wondering..... what fantastic opportunities had I missed?

A quick look at the CL Winners odds shows some remarkable swings. Take a look at the price / time graphs for Bayern, Stuttgart, Sevilla and AC.

I remember Ads suggested getting on the gooners (who, by the way, have got the closest to a bye in the next round ) before the Celtic games and i think a good few ticks were made as they brushed the bhoys aside.

Makes note to self - get small back bets on at high odds in similar competitions if a fancied team (e.g. Bayern ) looks to be struggling to qualify.

If you want to tie up some money from your account, you could do a bit of tournament trading now that we've reached the knockout stages.

Look for a team that you think will have a reasonable chance of progressing, but don't think will win. Ideally one that you think is under priced and lay them to win the tournament for £100 stake say.

Now, in the first round of the knockout phase, back them for £90 in the 'to qualify' market. If, at any stage, they don't qualify, you're in profit by £10 minus commission. If the do qualify, roll the stake over along with the profit and back them again in the 'to qualify' market of the second round. Rinse and repeat until they get knocked out of win the competition.

Hopefully they will get far enough in the competition to put your back bets in profit where you can then withdraw some of it so that in the event of getting knocked out, you'll have a bigger profit than the £10 net from the lay.

The drawback with this of course is you have your tournament lay money tied up for a few months. However, the technique can be used in any knockout style tournament making it suitable for tennis, snooker, etc. which of course are over shorter time periods.

^^ and one hell of a liability?

laying a team that you dont think is going to win the whole thing, would probably see their odds be about 10s, so £900 liability from a £100 lay?

Unless i misunderstood and you actually meant the reverse? back a team at long odds and lay them to qualify?

Nope, you understood correctly. Theoretically, you can do it either way. Whatever you are most comfortable with.

Interesting idea maybe for other knockout competitions but not for me with CL! Apart from Barca, Real and Chelsea all remaining teams are at 10+ with most 20+. Eye watering liabilities and far too much wonga tied up for my liking.

But, as Alistair says, snooker, tennis - worth a look at the figures.

I agree, it's not the best for football competitions. Not because of the initial liability, that can always be adjusted to suit your bank, but due to the amount of time that cash is tied up and cannot be utilised on other things.

As far as football, and this year's CL is concerned, you can vary it considerably depending on your risk aversion. Just to keep the numbers simple....

Take odds at 10 giving a liability of £900 for a £100 lay, you do not need to back your pick with £90 right at the off. You could keep back £20 of that say, with a view to using it for backing at higher odds in-play (do the 'to qualify' markets go in-play?) in order to boost the effective odds you are getting on each leg. Also, because these types of competitions tend to be over 2 legs, there's the possibility of waiting for better odds then. Up to the trader.

If you could get average odds of 2.00 for each round, a pick that went on to win then you'd be in profit by £450 (ignoring commission) based on an initial stake of £90. To break even, you'd need average odds of around 1.83.

Much of this argument applies to other sports of course. i.e using some of the stake in-play etc.