Hi Guys

This is my first post so please be gentle with me...

I am laying the draw on this game tonight for the reasons outlined below:
Partick won all four meetings against Morton in 2009 scoring 9 goals and conceding 0.
Morton have played 18 games in the league so far and have yet to draw a game and have in fact lost 13 of these 18 games.
Partick are 4th in the table and need a result to keep in touch of the promotion race.

Morton play Celtic in the Scottish cup on Saturday. I believe that this game will be such a big game for the Morton players that their minds will not be on tonight's game. Physiologically I think that this will be a big factor.

I have layed the draw £100 @ 4, will hedge profits at 8
stop loss at 1.90 if 0-0

I will likely start to trade out if Morton take the lead after 30 mins

The game is live on BBC Alba, Sky Channel 168

Anyone have an opinion on this?

Hi hornet

Welcome to the forum, nice first post, very informative.

Yes it should be a comfortable home win, these 2 played each other at Morton 2 months ago and the score was 0-2. Partick seem to be scoring plenty of goals with 12 in the last 6 and only failing to score once in those 6. Morton too have scored at least 1 in last 5 of 6. So by the looks of it the 0-0 hopefully won't be the end result!!!

Personally for laying the draw I tend to only go for games where the price is up to about 3.75. Dont like bigger liabilities.

One thing you could consider if Morton score is the Metaltone strat, mentioned in other thread.

Another strat I've been playing around with is to lay under 1.5 when the price reaches around 2.6 which if you pick the right games takes about 20-25 mins. Then once a goal scored I then back the side who have scored in the cs market, so either 1-0 or 0-1.

0-0 of course would screw you but in Premier this season the 0-0 has only come in 4.6% of the time.

Personally I feel it's a very dangerous thing for a trader to do, to try and assess players' mind sets before any game. When I used to play amateur/junior football it did not matter to me one jot what future games we had...cup matches or not...I simply played the best I could...as, I believe, did the other players.

However, I recognise that 'outside influences' can have an effect on teams, particularly those events surrounding board level decisions and other management problems...but what 'weighting' would you give to such 'considerations? A one goal penalty? A definite loss? or do you go for a 'player rebellion' where they play their socks off? Who really knows what is happening in the Dressing Room?

I normally ignore any phsycological 'issues' and concentrate on the stats, team sheets etc to develop an opening position to trade around....but to each their own...

As an aside, it's worth noting that sports psychologists do have a very positive effect in raising individual and team performances...indeed Sven used them to influence England during his time as manager.

You had to have good nerves to stay in the trade as it took until the 75' for a goal to happen. On the other hand, there was a lot of bad luck it could have been everything up to 2:2 after the first HT.

How did you do hornet? Think the price for draw was at 1.94 when goal went in so you should have been ok?

Tried something new and different, early days but it worked well allowing a free punt after 10 mins. Will do more research and games before saying anymore.

was a bit hairy but managed to grab 25 green here... I laid the draw at about 3.5 for 50 as there were a host of chances but hindsight is wonderful... anyway was looking for the exit door when the goal came. I also laid under 1.5 at 1.4 for 25 so added some extra green to offset red I had on CS. first time I have watched a game with Gaelic commentary... tcheuchters!!!