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 Post subject: MULTIPLES
Posted: Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:08 pm 
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Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2009 12:56 am
Posts: 27
Location: Toulouse
Multiple betting is offered by Betfair who act like a traditional bookmaker instead of their usual role as an intermediary in peer to peer exchange betting

For the trader who still yearns for the good old days (if that`s the right expression) of Yankees and Goliaths the Multiple market offers a diversion from the usual straightlaced business of trading

There has already been an excellent thread on here about this subject but I`ve semi-highjacked it with the intention of keeping a running record of my own attempts in this multiple mularkey madness. I`m doing about 2 of these bets per week.

As a preamble to posting my results here is my simplified take on how to best approach this market.

    Select matches IN-PLAY only that are played at different KO times as this will allow you to trade games with the result of the preceeeding game already known
    Select matches IN-PLAY only
    I suggest picking a multiple of DRAWS
    When calculating the amounts needed to LAY in-play always have in mind what your total liability is on the multiple bet and what your potential profit is on a double result and a treble result

Record so far:
1. Valencia v Villareal & Bordeaux v Marseille...... HOME WIN DOUBLE £60 DRAW DOUBLE £30 PROFIT £42
Here`s the sequence of in-play moves:
- 1-0 Valencia score 11min. LAY @ 1.3 £60
- 0-0 LAY Bordeaux @ 2.12 £60
- 2-0 LAY Valencia @ 1.03 £60
- 3-0 BACK DRAW Valencia @ 450.0
- 3-1 LAY DRAW Valencia @ 120.0 ( £13 hedged profit)
- 1-0 BACK Marseille CS 1-1/1-2/1-3 £16 total
- 1-1 LAY Marseille CS 1-1/1-2

Final scores: Valencia 3-1
Bordeaux 1-1

2. DRAW TREBLE + 3 DRAW DOUBLES STAKE £60 PROFIT £402
Angola v Algeria + Newcastle v West Brom + Rostok v Bielefeld
- 0-0 Angola LAY DRAW @ 1.5 £60
- 0-1 Rostok LAY DRAW @ 2.6 £60
- 0-1 Newcastle LAY DRAW @ 3.2 £50
- 1-1 Newcastle LAY DRAW @ 2.6 £120
- 2-2 Newcastle LAY DRAW @ 2.42 & 1.6 £300
- 2-2 Newcastle BACK 3-2/2-3/AUQ £43

Final scores
ANGOLA 0-0
NEWCASTLE 2-2
ROSTOK 1-1

3. DRAW DOUBLE GABON v ZAMBIA + CAMEROON v TUNISIA £40 LOSS - £12

I`m stopping there as it this is just becoming a "psychoff" post about P/L without much detailed explanation of the thought processes involved in the in-play trading. Video is the way to go with this I reckon

Am doing a DRAW treble this afternoon & evening.....BOCHUM/RODA/JUVENTUS


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 Post subject: Re: MULTIPLES
Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 2:52 am 
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Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2009 12:56 am
Posts: 27
Location: Toulouse
Breaking Rule No 3 by selecting a game that wasn`t "in-play" was dozy - I confused the Multiple coupon with Saturday In-play coupon; however, the multiple trade came up trumps making 3/4 this week. I chose a DRAW treble/2doubles

Bochum sneaked a late,er, very late equaliser in the first leg. Roda, the not in-play game was a home win - while Juve and Roma`s closely contested match made life easy enough in the end to come away with £78 profit from a £65 initial stake.
As stated in the previous post, this strategy/trade is in test phase but it is clear that if the first game is a draw then it`s plain sailing with the next 2 matches. I shall continue........
A video will be made available to members of the site asap


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 Post subject: Re: MULTIPLES
Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 10:38 am 
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Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:22 pm
Posts: 20
A very interesting read Bingo. There seems to be a bit of work to do inplay to equalise then release profit. Could you elaborate on how your figures relate to each other thus why you placed each subsequent bet. I can see some of the reasoning but without the figures for either side its difficult to fathom later bets.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I see in treble 2 above. When the draw reached 1.5 you layed it for the entire multiple stake. This would give you a scratch trade should 1 st game thereafter not finish in a draw, while keeping some profit in the multiple by way of the difference between the 1.5 lay and the draw odds in the multipe.

With the 1st draw now in the 2nd game gets a late goal 75/80th min I think, did you then lay the draw to release some profit from the multiple? i.e £60 profit should the game now stay 0-1. If so how much profit was left in the multiple, about the same? The last minute equaliser was a god send eh! No need/time to bet now on the draw?

Finally into the Newcastle game. A lot of activity here, all this I take it was manouvering to a postion on both sides you are happy with the final backs more ins against more goals in what was an end to end match.

Without knowing the total running profit on each side I can't see why you placed what you bet when you did, if that makes sense? But hopefully I have the jist of the bet or am I way of base here.

Perhaps you could put up a more details of the above trades. Multiple odds running totals after each bet. If not then maybe a thought for another if you put it up on here. To give a little more insight into how to think the trade through as it goes along.

Once again excellent result Bingo, keep up the good work


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 Post subject: Re: MULTIPLES
Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 10:57 am 
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Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:10 pm
Posts: 43
Very, very interesting area of research that seems to have some mileage in it. Have always been suspicious about multiple bets for some time now (as a punter I've backed many a multiple in my time!), and it's nice to see an attempt that may increase the chances of a multiple 'coming up'.

More power to your elbow Bingo, I wish you every success.


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 Post subject: Re: MULTIPLES
Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 11:43 am 
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Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:05 pm
Posts: 30
Location: In front of my PC
Having started the original trading multiples thread (trading-trebles-t37.html) it's interesting to read your approach, though I'm not quite clear what you're doing.

With the over 2.5 goal market I was using, the idea was to provide some protection by covering the multiple back stake in the event of less than 2 goals using the under 1 goal market and trading out after the second goal to lock in profit. Still a work in progress.

You choice of match draws for the multiple is something I didn't consider, though the greater returns from the draw treble will obviously give you more money, potentially, to play with. How though are you going about protecting your investment? Obviously, a very early goal in the first match is a danger and threatens to completely scupper all plans.

I'm beginning to wonder if it is simpler to do a hedged treble. What I mean by that is simply take a position on the first match (on any market one wishes), hedge out for a profit, hopefully then reinvest that profit together with the original stake in subsequent matches thereby increasing one's stake along the way. Rinse and repeat in a rolling accumulator until such times as you've done enough. You could also withdraw some of the profit along the way to protect your original stake.

I sense a little forum challenge/competition coming on. Starting stake of £10, see how far members can take it.

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Ali
Bet Your Life Sports Trading


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 Post subject: Re: MULTIPLES
Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 11:49 am 
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Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:06 pm
Posts: 75
I too will follow this experiment with interest, and am convinced that despite their reputation as the bookies best friend that multiples combined with trading can be profitable.

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Check out my Compounding Experiment at http://soccercompounding.blogspot.com - comments and followers most welcome... help me with my quest for Disciplined Trading!


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 Post subject: Re: MULTIPLES
Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 11:52 am 
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Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:06 pm
Posts: 75
AlistairH wrote:
I sense a little forum challenge/competition coming on. Starting stake of £10, see how far members can take it.


Good idea Ali! We could have a little league table and maybe the nuggetteers will provide a virtual trophy!

_________________
Check out my Compounding Experiment at http://soccercompounding.blogspot.com - comments and followers most welcome... help me with my quest for Disciplined Trading!


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