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gundulf
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Post subject: Multiples (Take two) Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:15 pm |
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Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:06 pm Posts: 75
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I mentioned this briefly in chat last night but will outline it here in more detail. I have taken a new position which is severely limiting my trading time, so have been looking for some steady methods of slowly increasing my bank which doesn't rely totally on trading in-play. One of the ideas I'm toying with is laying odds on favourites in match odds as a multiple. So, yesterday evening I did the following treble.... USA, Ajax and Bielefeld. A £10 stake (being brave, you see  ) I faced a liability of about £37. My plan was to recover as much of that liability as possible from the first match and go from there. Being me, with my legendary preparation, I didn't realise the USA game kicked off at 2.00 am! So off I went to bed fully expecting to be one from three down this morning. A pleasant surprise awaited me as Honduras won 1-3! One from one - so here's the next for today: Bielefeld, Xanthi and Velencia - again a £37 liability for a tenner stake with all three games in-play. There is no 'science' in my selections, nor any 'gut feeling' at present other than the favourites being odds-on. The games are staggered over time, so if I get in a mess I might still be able to retrieve some or all of my liability in play. We'll see how we go.... wish me luck!
_________________ Check out my Compounding Experiment at http://soccercompounding.blogspot.com - comments and followers most welcome... help me with my quest for Disciplined Trading!
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Bingo
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Post subject: Re: Multiples (Take two) Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 1:25 pm |
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Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2009 12:56 am Posts: 27 Location: Toulouse
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Indeed, good luck with this Gundulf.
As long as you stagger the KO times and they are in-play you should have a chance to get out of a hole at some point.
As you know I`m on the case with these type of bets/trades and think they could be utilised particularly in Tournaments. In WC group matches for example, knowing that some teams will be satisfied with a draw in their last game could help us make the correct selections
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gundulf
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Post subject: Re: Multiples (Take two) Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 5:04 pm |
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Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:06 pm Posts: 75
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Massive laptop problems - only just been able to get logged on again, so at the mercy of the first two games but yet again I return to find a winner thanks to Xanthi only being able to draw their game!
Two from two but so far I've been unable to try out the trading aspect of this method which is a bit frustrating.
So, from Sunday's later games: Ivory Coast, Porto and Sporting - £10 stake £34 liability.
_________________ Check out my Compounding Experiment at http://soccercompounding.blogspot.com - comments and followers most welcome... help me with my quest for Disciplined Trading!
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Human123
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Post subject: Re: Multiples (Take two) Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 9:04 pm |
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Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2009 11:53 am Posts: 49
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What sort of strategy will you be using to try and recover some of the liability then?
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gundulf
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Post subject: Re: Multiples (Take two) Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 9:42 pm |
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Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:06 pm Posts: 75
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Human123 wrote: What sort of strategy will you be using to try and recover some of the liability then? Good question! So far, touch wood, I haven't had to, but in the third batch where the Ivory Coast game was 1-1 from just before half time I had already made over £10 by laying them in the h/t market when they went 1-0 after 6 minutes. I also scalped u2.5 down from that point. I'll admit to being a tad fortunate as my next back bet was waiting to be matched on u2.5 when the Algerian equaliser went in, so I was able to scalp down again from that point. I left this market alone when I'd got another £10 green. So at that point I'd covered roughly £20 of £34 from two markets. I then laid the draw at about 85 minutes for the remaining £10 (at 1.08) - then Ivory scored! Before I could lay them or do anything else Algeria equalised again - trade won with an additional twenty quid or so profit. Just as well, at the time of writing both lays in Portugal are going against me 
_________________ Check out my Compounding Experiment at http://soccercompounding.blogspot.com - comments and followers most welcome... help me with my quest for Disciplined Trading!
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gundulf
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Post subject: Re: Multiples (Take two) Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 10:12 pm |
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Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:06 pm Posts: 75
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Right, three from three and a narrow coupon for tomorrow night so have gone for a slightly riskier treble: Lecce, Raith and Charlton again a tenner stake giving a liability of £40.
This is riskier for two reasons - first all games have the same k/o times and secondly the Raith game is not in-play....
Tuesday's coupon gives more scope but I really am looking for a 'one a day' trade here so this will be interesting.
_________________ Check out my Compounding Experiment at http://soccercompounding.blogspot.com - comments and followers most welcome... help me with my quest for Disciplined Trading!
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gundulf
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Post subject: Re: Multiples (Take two) Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2010 11:24 pm |
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Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:06 pm Posts: 75
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I'm really starting to both enjoy and really believe in this method. Four from four, nothing too hairy in tonight's trades despite the potential risks highlighted above.
Raith, not in-play on bf, were 0-1 down and with a man sent off. They did manage to equalise in 2nd half but by then I had been able to back them at 18- 1 on bet 365 for £2.5 to cover my entire liability.
Lecce won their game and Charlton contrived to lose at home to Leyton Orient.
Tuesday's coupon offers some interesting possibilities, but I am hampered by having to go out at about 8.45 pm so a conservative treble for tomorrow: Anderlecht, Bourdeuax and Liverpool to the usual £10 stakes representing a liability of £54.80. Will this trade undo the good work of the previous four??
The Anderlecht game is not in play and the other two share k'o times so again not ideal. My plan to limit liabilities is twofold - u2.5 in France and lay pool in the h/t market, as usual for 15 minutes or so.....
fingers crossed!
_________________ Check out my Compounding Experiment at http://soccercompounding.blogspot.com - comments and followers most welcome... help me with my quest for Disciplined Trading!
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gundulf
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Post subject: Re: Multiples (Take two) Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 11:18 pm |
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Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:06 pm Posts: 75
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Another winning trade, courtesy of Anderlecht and Liverpool. Listening to the dire first half at Molyneux I let my h/t lay of pool run for the whole first half, covering my initial liability in dribs and drabs from 25 minutes to 35 minutes. Lost £3 scalping u2.5 in France - took the red after the first goal - good job I did as it finished 2-3! Used some of the green from the pool lay to back Anderlecht for the balance of my total liability on bet 365, so overall up just over £17 on all trades. Five from five - looking good.
Wednesday's trade (might be Wednesday mark 1 - we'll see) involves Colon (k/o 23.10 tonight - just off and f'g 1-0 already!) Twente and Blackburn - a £60 liability for a £10 stake. I say might be mark 1 because if the Colon game wins for me I'll have another trade with either Man u or Sevilla taking Colon's place in the treble).
My thoughts so far are that if I can win consistently with this trade this first week that I'll start looking at £50 lays next week to start getting serious about this strat.
_________________ Check out my Compounding Experiment at http://soccercompounding.blogspot.com - comments and followers most welcome... help me with my quest for Disciplined Trading!
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gundulf
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Post subject: Re: Multiples (Take two) Posted: Wed Jan 27, 2010 10:52 pm |
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Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:06 pm Posts: 75
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Today's treble was the first losing one - and ironically the one with the highest liability reflecting the best chance of it being a winning trade....
All was not lost, however, as some judicious backing of o2.5 in both the Colon and Twente games paid off, as did second half ltd trades in Colon and Blackburn. Ended up with an overall £17 red.
So, five from six with the additional bunce picked up along the way neutralising tonight's dismal performance I still think there is mileage in this; but the £50 stakes will have to wait for a while until the stats are more reliable.
Thursdays treble: Palmeiras, Fluminese and Inter - £10 stake and £55 liability. Again the first game is tonight, so will trade that one to try to minimise or eliminate liability on the treble.
_________________ Check out my Compounding Experiment at http://soccercompounding.blogspot.com - comments and followers most welcome... help me with my quest for Disciplined Trading!
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gundulf
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Post subject: Re: Multiples (Take two) Posted: Fri Jan 29, 2010 12:07 am |
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Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:06 pm Posts: 75
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Last update for now, this feels more like a blog than a forum post - I'm talking to myself (first sign of madness!)
Another losing treble lay today, but a winner overall. I made over a third of my liability on u2.5 in the game last night, and although Fluminese won 0-4 and Inter 2-1 I was able to make a profit overall by trading cs on inter and greening up at about 60 minutes. Had I not been in such a rush to catch The Bill I could have really cleaned up, but such is life! Overall profit of just over £10 on the whole shebang - pity Juve couldn't have held on but hey ho.
So five from seven, what have I learnt? Firstly had I not traded the games as I had this experiment would have cost me money. Secondly, a simple £10 back of these trebles would have made money and without me being subjected to relatively high liabilities. Thirdly it was good fun and lastly that using a multiple lay in conjunction with some other simple trading strategies is an area with much potential.
_________________ Check out my Compounding Experiment at http://soccercompounding.blogspot.com - comments and followers most welcome... help me with my quest for Disciplined Trading!
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