On a recent TOTD it was mentioned that a 0-0 score line only happens in 8% of results.

So I'm wondering? What are the %s for other score lines? For example, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 and 2-2.

Also, where does the data come from? Which leagues are we talking about? and how accurate is the % information?

I'm asking because in my last 2 trades I've managed to hit a 0-0 score line in both trades! If it is true that 0-0 only happens 8% of the time then I've been dreadfully unlucky

Hi Dak.

in http://www.soccerstats.com/ you can find that data

just select the league you want and hit "score" http://www.soccerstats.com/scoring.asp?league=argentina

Thanks for that ganda. It's interesting to note that under the England stats 'Most frequent scores', that the 0-0 score line shows as a frequency of 5.91%...(Premier League) ...so I'm even unluckier than I thought!

For England2 (Championship) it shows 0-0 frequency as being 7.99%.

so would that mean if we lay 0-0 anytime its at 10s and below in the premier league we are getting "value" ?

Exactly Human. I saw in an earlier post that you considered "as too much of a`punt` for me"
my suggestion to LAY 0-0 @ 7.8 in one of the African Nations Cup games. I bet on it because the price represented "value"

Yeah, i just been stung one too many times by laying the nil-nil (aka laying the draw) early in my betfair days.

Thinking about it more deeply now, do you think we should always lay 0-0 priced under 10 in the premiership? where the 0-0 has only come up in 6% of games this season...

I would say that the games where the lay 0-0 is under 10s are games where the 0-0 is more likely to happen. The 6-8% 0-0 scorelines apply to the all the games, regardless the odd.

Ideally one would have to have info about the % of 0-0s when odds are under, lets say 10.0, that would tell us the real value of these value bets. IMO

I've been playing around with the most frequent scores/odds, just trying to find value. The problem that I'm having is in relating the basic true odds in Correct Score (CS) with how they should be changed in the light of the Match Odds (MO) quoted.

For example, in tonight's Italian game, AC Milan v Udenise, MO are AC Milan 1.62, Udinese 7.2 with the Draw at 4.0. So, AC Milan are the heavy favourite.

Let's assume that after looking at the league/team stats we decide that AC Milan are worthy favs and we think that there will be goals. So, we link the fact that we think there will be goals with some of the most frequent scorelines in the league.

1-1 is quoted in Betfair CS as 8.4 (basic true odds = 7.59), 2-0 is quoted at 8.2 (basic true odds = 10.85) and 2-1 is quoted at 9.2 (basic true odds = 8.71).

So it would appear that the 1-1 and the 2-1 are good value bets/trades...

However, it's not that simple..because for every match we need to take into account the MO, and how they affect the basic true odds. And that is my problem...what 'weighting' do I give to the MO and how they affect the basic true odds?

Or should I just forget the whole thing and assume that the market is about right? Or should I use the KISS principle and just go on the simple difference between the basic true odds and the CS market? Any thoughts/opinions appreciated...

(PS. If we thought low scoring then the CS 0-0 is quoted at 13, basic true odds are at 11.4, with 1-0 at 7.2, and 8.77 respectively)

I am wondering if there is a way you can combine frequent scorelines in the league with frequent scorelines of both teams... maybe there you can find some indication of how much odds in CS are skewed with relationship to the basic scorelines.