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[ 10 posts ] |
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devomark2
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Post subject: lay fav in HT market Posted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 12:11 am |
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Joined: Wed Dec 16, 2009 3:23 am Posts: 13
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Saw this strat in a racing traders thread,it involves laying fav in half time market and backing 1-0 to favs in HT market as insurance (optional),ive tried it twice on brazil-ireland,and eng-egypt,laid favs at around evens and backed 1-0,laid a tenner and backed a tenner,brazil drifted very quickly and the 1-0 to brazil stayed quite static for about 15-20 mins,so out for a profit on brazil and scratch on 1-0,the england game saw england static for 10 mins (patriotic backing probrably) and the 1-0 coming in so as i was watching the game as opposed to not watching the brazil game i took a small green on all HT scores at 15 mins and then 23mins egypt scored and england went out to 9.6-10.00 could have left it but i took the green,obviously much better to watch the game as you get a feel for it,but i think there are some good strats for HT markets as odds move double quick,as im looking to expand my football trading knowledge any advice or improvements on this would be superb,cheers. 
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jonah107
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Post subject: Re: lay fav in HT market Posted: Sat Mar 06, 2010 11:42 pm |
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Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2010 8:43 pm Posts: 10
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I've seen this before. It worked a treat tonight in Real Madrid game. You've always got the chance that the dog will score first as happened with Madrid v Seville. Nice profit.
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Longy
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Post subject: Re: lay fav in HT market Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2010 12:45 pm |
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Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2009 2:56 pm Posts: 28
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Yeah, I did it for Celtic on Saturday. Went for 10% ROI, took 8 mins. I tend to use away teams to lay.
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devomark2
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Post subject: Re: lay fav in HT market Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2010 4:25 pm |
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Joined: Wed Dec 16, 2009 3:23 am Posts: 13
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Although i dont like trading on the team i support,this strat worked a treat on arsenal on saturday,i was out on 20 mins,had 1-0 arse in HT market as insurance,and even got a small green on that,it would have worked well on villa,chelski,and manure at weekend,so far ive always used 1-0 to favs as ins as this score comes in or at worst dont go anywhere for 15-20 mins,i noticed 1-0 arse came in from initial 3.4 to 1.5 at 35 mins when goal was scored,so if you were still in you would have lost £4.90 on arse but won £12.50 ish on all HT scores,as its early days and no one has scored an early goal yet,im playing it by ear,as i said earlier in this thread any help from the more experienced people on improvements/dangers would be much apprieciated,cheers.
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gundulf
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Post subject: Re: lay fav in HT market Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 12:04 am |
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Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:06 pm Posts: 75
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 Not this old chestnut again 
_________________ Check out my Compounding Experiment at http://soccercompounding.blogspot.com - comments and followers most welcome... help me with my quest for Disciplined Trading!
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gundulf
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Post subject: Re: lay fav in HT market Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 12:18 am |
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Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:06 pm Posts: 75
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There are only really two dangers, devo. An early favourite goal is the first, and your greed is the second! I can't do much about the second except to remind you that sides are evens / odds on for a reason, so use your common sense and take the green.
An early faves goal I'm afraid means that redding up isn't usually worthwhile, so I tend to lump on another £100 or so at 1.06 or thereabouts and keep my fingers crossed for an equaliser! I rarely bother with insurance as I've found this strat pays much more often than not. Good luck with it.
_________________ Check out my Compounding Experiment at http://soccercompounding.blogspot.com - comments and followers most welcome... help me with my quest for Disciplined Trading!
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jerseyblue
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Post subject: Re: lay fav in HT market Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:35 pm |
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Joined: Tue Mar 15, 2011 10:31 pm Posts: 3
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Could you give me some more detailed instructions on this lay the favourite at HT but also back fav 1-0 HT please. Do you lay anything off at any point? and do you lay same amount on each possiblity?
At what point do you lay off if score stays 0-0? Thanks in advance.
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devomark2
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Post subject: Re: lay fav in HT market Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 10:33 am |
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Joined: Wed Dec 16, 2009 3:23 am Posts: 13
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if still 0-0 at 15 mins i get out of both positions,for a small profit,same stakes used for lay the fav,and back the 1-0 to favs,basicaly im looking for slow starting favs and stubburn underdogs.example chelsea-birmingham would be worth a look,as gundulph says earlier you dont have to cover the 1-0,this strat wont work every time but slow starting favs can drift enough in 15 mins to nick a profit,watching the game is advisable so you can leave the trade to run a bit longer or get out if the fav looks lively.
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jerseyblue
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Post subject: Re: lay fav in HT market Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 6:17 pm |
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Joined: Tue Mar 15, 2011 10:31 pm Posts: 3
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Hi, thanks for getting back to me, is this the best system you use? Have you any others? i must have tried so many over the years!" am dabbling with laying goal in first 10 mins at moment but would like just one really good system.
coincidence that you mention Birmingham as one of the teams in your example, theyre the team I support.
Thanks again
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devomark2
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Post subject: Re: lay fav in HT market Posted: Sat Mar 19, 2011 12:27 pm |
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Joined: Wed Dec 16, 2009 3:23 am Posts: 13
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And theres me an arsenal supporter,anyway ive been looking at the over unders markets and see how many goals the market expects,example,today spurs-w ham the over 2.5 is 1.80 so that is favorite as the unders is 2.22,the under 3.5 is 1.48 the over 3.5 is 3.00,so under 3.5 is fav in that market,so its telling us there should be over 2.5 and under 3.5,not exactly rocket science but i then look at the 3 goal market,spurs are favs so 3-0 2-1 scores which are priced 16.5 and 9.0 and maybe 1-2 which is 21.00,these odds combined give you a price of 4.56 if you backed all 3(dutched) just testing at the moment,but has worked a few times,but it is the time factor as i trade horses every day but will keep an eye on it,cheers.
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