Hi there,

Only came across your guy's website yesterday - so am fairly new, but I have been dabbling in Football trading for a while with a little success, still looking for a solid system though!

I just wondered what you guys think about the following strategy, it's basically laying the Over 2.5 goals and then using a ductch of certain scores as insurance, i.e dutch 2-1, 1-2, 3-0, 0-3

I tried this last night on the Bayern/Lyon game. Layed the overs for £50 at 2.2 (liab £60). I then did a £20 dutch on 2-1, 1-2, 3-0, 0-3, 3-1, 1-3 - which would lead to about £49 had it finished on any of these (£10 overall loss)

All was going well, but then there was the red card and Bayern looked like they may run away with it so I placed a few quid on the 'Any other score' while the odds were high, this brought the dutching profit down to £45ish or so. Anyway, in the end I had about an £18 loss - which I consider fairly successful really.

Has anyone else tried anything similar, or have any suggestions about how I might tweak this strat? Maybe leave the 3-1 and 1-3 out of the dutch until a second goal is scored? Am I right in thinking the prices on these will drift until the 3rd goal goes in?

Cheers guys,

Lee.

Hmmmm, guess no one has anything to say about this strategy then?

Well, anyway, tried this again yesterday on the Barca/Inter game. Layed the overs at 1.66 for £50 (liab £33). I decided not to place my insurance bets straight away, as the match was on TV and thought I see how it started. The price on the overs rose fairly quickly from 1.66 to over 2, so could've greened up for a small profit early on but thought I'd leave it run anyway.

I put my insurance bets on about 10/15mins in, I placed a dutch on 2-1 and 1-2 for a profit of £40 (about a £6 bet over the 2). Left it like this really, although I did add insurance on 3-0 and 3-1 (£3ish) just after half time, as Inter never really looked to score and I thought if Barca got the one then they may well flood in after that. Anyway, I greened up on the over 2.5 for about £42, quite a good take. Less the £9 on insuance left me £30 up. This covered the £18 loss yesterday and left a nice £12 profit for me! Ideal.

Thinking of doing the same again tonight on one of the Europa games, most likely Fulham as I have a feeling that's the more likely out of the two games to have the least amount of goals. We'll see. Comments welcome!

Thanks, Lee.

Hi Lee,

just wondering how did you do, as when it goes not as predicted you have a true value of any system. So, did you trade Fulham and what was the result as it was over 2,5 game.
Cheers
embor

That's a good point embor. Any strategy that comes up with a green outcome during trading is fine...so well done for defining the strategy. However, the more important aspect is how you use the strat to minimise any reds during trading (or even come out with a break even...)

I decided to trade the Liverpool match instead. Layed overs at 1.9, I greened out at about 30mins for a £17 profit. Quite glad I didn't trade the Fulham game now!

Just traded the Birmingham/Burnley game. This didn't go in my favour. Was gonna green up just before the first goal for £10, but decided to stay in, doh! Anyway, after the first goal I put the insurance on 2-1 and 1-2. Then at the second goal I covered 3-0 and any other score. Made a £16 loss here... not so good, but an acceptable loss I think.

I think waitin for a goal before puting on any insurance bets is the way to go, the prices don't change much after one goal and it also eliminates on the the 3-0 scorelines, so there's less to cover.

Might trade City/Villa next...

Well, that didn't go too well! Bloody 3-1.

Made it out with a loss of £30ish - not too sure where I went wrong there, covered the 2-1's after the first goal, but after it quickly went 2-1 I'd lost my chance to cover the other scores effectively. Ah well. Managed to lay off the £60 I had on the 2-1 so wasn't all bad. Not a good trade though.

I don't think many people post onthis forum mate? Don't get disheartened though as all the strats we can get are always appreciated! Where did you find the original strategy?

Doesn't seem that they do, no.

I'm not disheartened, will carry on. Made back about £20 of my losses yesterday by trading a couple other games, so I'm almost back to my starting bank again.

This is my own strat that I decided to toy with. I think it has some potential, but needs tweaking really. Gonna plod on wiith it though. Might try some more later, see how it goes.