Tinkering with this, thoughts?

adster · **Posted:** Mon Dec 14, 2009 11:29 am

As we know from stats say in Premier from 30 mins to the end of game 75% of goals go in between that time. Stats are as follows:

Goals scored and conceded

Time 0-15 16-30 31-45 46-60 61-75 76-90 Sum
Sum 55 63 89 89 83 97 476
Sum % 12% 13% 19% 19% 17% 20%

Thoughts are and have tried this with small stakes is to back 1-0, 0-1 at start of game then at 30 minutes, LAY under 1.5. Of course game selection is paramount, and would only do it for games that meet the criteria.

So before I continue with the analysis/summary etc, let's see what the likes of gun, dak and others make of it and get some discussions going.

adster · **Posted:** Mon Dec 14, 2009 11:30 am

http://www.stats.betradar.com/statistics/betway/

gundulf · **Joined:** Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:06 pm **Posts:** 75

What are you suggesting ads, green up on those two scores and use the green as a lay stake - or all three bets run?

jrock · **Joined:** Mon Dec 07, 2009 12:12 pm **Posts:** 6

25% of all goals are scored in 0-30min in the PL, but the first goal is scored in 0-30min in about 50% of the games

gundulf · **Joined:** Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:06 pm **Posts:** 75

An important point!

DakC47 · **Joined:** Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:10 pm **Posts:** 43

Lay whatever the score is at the 30 min point may be an option...

adster · **Posted:** Tue Dec 15, 2009 12:37 am

Tried this in the game tonight via phone as wasn't at home. I backed 1-0 and 0-1 at start, combined stakes £15, (small stakes). After 30 mins the lay under 1.5 was around 2.70 so I then layed it with £50 leaving liability on that of £85 and of course £15 on the scores.

No goal you lose both trades.

1-0, 0-1 will be a scratch trade as the initial cover will cover the loss on laying under 1.5

More than 1 goal you will make £35 using these stakes.

IF goal goes in before you've layed under 1.5 there's a good chance that whilst you lose one of the 1-0s the other one will drop enough to come out with a small loss or even a scratch trade.

Tried this a few times now and it's been ok, 1 goal will be scratch, 2 and its happy days and you have 2/3s of the match to achieve 2 goals.

Choice of games of course is important. Lower the under 1.5 at around 30 minute mark the better.

Welcome to the 'Adster Ace' strategy. :lol:

Human123 · **Joined:** Sat Dec 05, 2009 11:53 am **Posts:** 49

what do you do if a goal goes in before 30 min mark?

for instance if a goal goes in within first 15 minutes then the 1-0 scoreline usually comes OUT!

Do you just take the hit?

Apart from that seems pretty good if you can get over a 65% strike rate of not hitting the nil-nil which cant be too hard!

adster · **Posted:** Tue Dec 15, 2009 4:46 pm

A goal goes in and you either take the loss or you can then back scores like 2-1, 2-2 etc knowing your 1-0 is covered. You will need less stakes as the dog price might be something like 12s from start of match.

The game last night was ideal and all you would need is 1 goal to break even and 2 to have a nice tasty profit with around 2/3's of the game to be played.

IF anyone can think of a better way to cover the goal going in then speak up please. Alternatively you just back the 1-0, 0-1 at 30 mins but the prices would have come in a fair bit so you would need to back them with more £££.

Thoughts?

zamatrade · **Joined:** Mon Dec 07, 2009 7:03 am **Posts:** 1

... if lay 0-0 HT start game, and if 0-0 after 25' 30' min. lay u1,5 ? ... if goal in the first minute, (1-10° min ) back 1-0 or 0-1 , odds up ...

Tinkering with this, thoughts?

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