Hello. After watching all the videos of the nugget crew i decided to trade today on football matches. I employed some of the techniques and came up with some ideas to trade. I'll share with all of you and please tell me what you think.

First i tried the XT strategy on the Porto Leixoes match and it didn't work well, i feel this strategy could be tried on reverse. Let's say you lay the first goal on the first tens minutes at 5ish and you lay the under 4,5 at say 1,15. The idea is to try to do it on reverse, the under 4,5 almost doesn't move on the first 10 minutes and it goes up many ticks if a goal is scored that early.

Then i did a correct score / unders 3.5 - basically i layed over 3.5 and i made insurance bets on 3-1 and 3-2 scores on the lecce vicenza match. The idea was i was expecting few goals, and backed 3-1 at 20 ish and 3-2 at 40 ish i think. If goals came up for either sides, i'd have an insurance on those bets, but the goal was to trade off the 3.5 at low odds (i layed half at 1.1 and then the rest at 1.01). It was successfull but i'm not used to trade at the correct score market, so i need to practice when the goals star comming in. what to you think the 3-1 and 3-2 to start?

Finally i did a simple lay on the any other score on the porto match as i knew porto was playing with many reserves and was unlikely they would score that many goals. I layed it at 6 ish, put a greening back at 32 and decided i would leave the trade should porto reached a 3rd goal, or if the odds would be as low that the trade off would be above -30 eur, since the green up at 32 would give me +20 eur. I feel i should have some sort of insurance on this bet but i couldn't come up with one, any help here? maybe the 4.5 overs?

Sorry for the long post, comments are appreciated.

Hi jclive

Welcome to the forum. The Xt works best when odds are around 2 to 2.20, plenty of liquidity and dont involve any of the top sides. Why? Because the market generally is slow and thinks goals will come in the first 10 minutes. One way of incorporating more profit is to put less on the first goal market allowing a bigger profit on the unders. I have also had success in scalping the first 10 and having 11 to 20 minutes covered in the first goal market and then lumping on unders. Dangers? Being caught scalping for a goal in first 10!!

Your idea interesting but not sure how many ticks the market would move if a goal goes in to recover your loss on the first goal market if a goal is scored 0 to 10.

Yes this could work. Generally 3-1 is around 13s to 18s and the 3-2 is around 40s.

Tend to normally leave the AUQ alone. Why? Because by covering the 3-0 or 3-1 instead you will get much higher odds and if and when a goal is scored the price can only come in allowing you lay off at a lower price.

Hi. I used to trade a lot on the under 4.5, and in my experience if the odds are about 1.15 at the beggining of the game they'll come up for about 1.35 i think. They'll come up about as high as the under 3.5 at the beggining. The idea would be to lay the first goal odds at say 50, and put a maximum liabillity of 25 or 30 i don't know exactly, at the under 4.5. You'd win 25 to 30 eur most of the time, and you'd lose, i don't know how much i have to do the math, when they scored in the first ten minutes, but i'd be hopping the wins to cover the losses (if the right matches are selected as always). What do you think?
About you idea, i didn't understand how backing the 11-20 would help you scalp the first ten, could you explain?

At the AUQ market, i selected it because the odds were incredibilly low (6ish) and i knew they were value, because as i said porto was playing with reserves. The odds of 3-0 odds were 10 and 3-1 15 i think, there were no great value i think, but maybe i'm missing.