Hi everyone

For last couple of weeks I was looking at the NBA MO market, as Im using it a lot to roll-over my free bets. What i found is that very often the fav team is losing, and also there is a big value in underdogs. On Tuesday night Ive backed Toronto at 8.8 and layed it later at 7.34. The game was at half 3 in the morning, had uni next day (didnt go anyway ) so couldnt stay in the trade for too long, but when i checked the scores next morning Lakers won 109:107 so very close game, and probably in the 4th quarter i would be able to lay at around 4. Last night Ive backed New Jersey at 8.8, just before the start the price was at 8 already, and due to good performance of NJ in the first quarter i was able to lay it off at 3.5! Thats almost 150% roi


I will try to post my tips in this post, at the moment im going thru the nba statistics but its kind of complicated. Any one got any thoughts about that??

What made you decide pre-match that they would give them a good game? do you have a good knowledge of nba already?

This sounds promising buddy. How long have you been testing it? Do you use much selection criteria when deciding which matches to bet on? I'll certainly give it a go if you post your tips. Thanks for the info. Vic

ive been looking at that quite a long time, but just recently decided to do some trades. Still cant figure out why the underdogs win so often. Selection is more like a feeling, although im reading lots of articles on sbrforum.com. I like nj, saw many games and know they can hang on to the fav. Today im going to back them again, but would recommend to paper trade this as dont wont to be responsible for any losses... Also its good to decide what lay price do you want to take before hand, as odds are jumping rapidly.

http://p2p4u.net/sports/basketball.html streams, athough i dont think its healthy to watch when you trading

last friday game between new jersey and oklahoma finished 102-104 to oklahoma. Ive entered with backing nj at 8.8. In 1st quarter they were losing by 11 points, so odds drifted out, but later on in the game they came back, although i quit my trade at the end of 2nd quarter with nj lay at 7.2. That was around 22% roi. I guess later on in the game the odds were better. Today im backing Minnesota, hopefully will get matched at 11

I have been looking at and doing some trading on the NBA market as well. Being in Canada, it works well for me timing-wise since matches are late afternoon and evening. The liquidity is usually quite good too: frequently at or close to six figures pre-match and the money keeps coming in during the match.

I too have noticed that the underdogs tend to do well. What I have done fairly well at is in the 4th quarter when one team is up by 10 pts or so, the trailing team frequently makes a comeback causing the leading teams price to rise. The leading team is typically available at 1.10 to 1.17 before the underdogs make a surge. You can make good money with huge upside and little downside.

The other night I was actually doing something a bit different when I was on the wrong side of such a swing. The leading team totally dominated the trailing team for the first two quarters and about 1/3 of the 3rd quarter; they were up by 17 points and available at 1.09. Suddenly it was like a switch went off. The trailing team was sinking 3 pointers like there was no tomorrow (8 out of 11 in the 3rd quarter alone) and the leading team couldn't sink a basket to save their life (one guy had a three-shot free throw and didn't sink *any* of them!)

Anyway, the team that was leading ended up losing and if I had layed instead of backed (as I said, I was trying something new), I would have made a bundle as the price just kept going up and up. I actually ended up losing more than I should have; deer in the headlight syndrome

-SilkBC

yeah, the swings are huge in nba, im located in scotland so the games are late and last one, Minnesota wasnt good pick. I fell asleep around the start of 2nd qt so -100% roi . tonite is washington, as they easily covered they spread +12 spread with portland. I was trying to get matched before the game at 11.5, when 11 was available, the game didnt even kicked off and the odds dropped to 8!!! I took it anyway....