I've had this idea floating in my head for ages. Although I tried it out today for the first time, and made a profit, it should still be treated as a work in progress as I haven't ironed out the finer detail....

In essence, I wanted to see if there was a way to make use of the bigger profit a treble provides, while backing/laying other options to provide some sort of insurance.

For the purposes of this exercise, I've been concentrating on the over 2.5 goals market, though there's no reason it cannot be adapted for other markets. The basics are as follows:

1. Select 3 games and back the over 2.5 goals as a treble.
2. Back the under 1.5 goals in each game to provide cover for 1 goal or less.
3. As each game progresses, lay the over 2.5 goals after the second goal goes in.

As ever, the devil is in the detail - or the odds and stakes in this case.

My gut feeling is to look for games where the over 2.5 goals odds on, but not too low otherwise you sacrifice some trading options later on. Also, you want the under 1.5 goals to be as high as possible. Over 2.5 odds of 1.8ish should see under 1.5 odds of 4.5ish.

You want to back each under 1.5 so that you would retrieve much of the treble stake. How much is up to you but I've going along the lines of 75%.

After the second goal goes in, you want to lay off to a stake equal to the treble stake. This is fine if the second goal goes in before half time. I haven't decided what to do as yet in the event of late goals.

The danger area is if you have two games over 2.5 and one game with 2 goals. You'll lose up to twice your treble stake (rough calculation) overall.

Here's what I did today...

£10 treble on the over 2.5 goals in the games at Bolton, Chelsea and Man Utd. Effective odds were 5.58 giving a potential profit before commission of £45.58.

Backed under 1.5 goals for £2 each in these games at odds of 4.00, 5.60 and 4.50 respectively.

With early goals in the afternoon matches at Bolton and Chelsea, I was able to lay the over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.16 (liability of £1.16) and 1.07 (liability of £0.70).

With both these games ending over 2.5 goals, it was up to the Man U game to bring in the readies. However, there was clearly a danger that this game would finish badly and I lost my bottle (fortunately as it turns out) and traded out to give me a guaranteed profit of around £12.

This actually may be a better way to do things. Look for games not on at the same time and roll the bet over. That way, if it fails at the first hurdle, you won't lose the money on the subsequent under 1.5 bets as there'd be no need to place them.

Anyway, that's my thinking. Some work still to be done, but perhaps others can weigh in with suggestions.

nice post...

i have always thought about running multiples over legs which happen at different times, whereby if at least the first leg wins you can then proceed to lock in profit on all the others.

could be something in it, there must be a niche in multiples laying somehow?

Just been looking at the sums of doing things over consecutive matches rather than concurrent ones.

With treble odds of 5.58 when doing multiples, the effective profit would be £45.80 for a £10 stake. As multiples are placed against Betfair, I'm presuming there's no commission to pay on top of that. If anyone knows for certain, let me know.

The individual odds were 1.96, 1.69 and 1.83 respectively. The staking and profit after commission would then be as follows:
£10 @ 1.96 => £9.12
£19.12 @ 1.69 => £12.53
£31.65 @ 1.83 => £24.96

So the overall profit after commission is £31.65 + £24.96 - £10 = £46.61 giving effective odds for the treble of 5.66.

Based on this it would indeed be better to do this over consecutive matches rather than concurrent ones. This is because you won't get the same odds when doing multiples compared to the individual odds of each event.

Good post. Something I've never really looked at and not sure I understand the trade so a couple of questions:

1) £10 stake in total, or ten each leg?
2) U 1.5 bets are stand alone bets, not trebled?
3) When you lay the u 2.5 in play, you're laying in the individual games, correct?

In your example your liability is £16? or £46?

Just to be clear, it is the OVER 2.5 goals that one should lay off.

The £10 is on the treble, not individual selections.
The U1.5 and the O2.5 are on the individual markets.

So the liability as far as my example above is concerned would be £16 initially, plus the small amount when laying off each over 2.5 after the second goal goes in. In the event of late goals, the over 2.5 won't come in to a value that would make it worth while I do not think, though you may be able to lay off for the whole amount to minimise the loss.

Hi Alistair,very nice post.
As i can see,the danger is a late 2-0 or 1-1 losing our U1,5 insurance and not being able to lay O2,5 because of high odds.
What about backing these scores pre match in CS market with small stakes,so we have covered every possible outcome.
We can always lay these scores and the O2,5 in play if we have quick goals,securing our treble stake,without minimizing the
profit too much.


But .....it cannot be so simple.
What do you guys think?

Interesting thoughts turbo. Perhaps though, rather than cover oneself pre-match in the cs market, the option is to look to those scores in-play, if and only if, there has been only 1 goal scored. We are, after all, ideally looking for goals early in the first half. Why waste money on something we do not necessarily need?

This idea is getting more and more complicated the more I think about it.

Don't they all?!

Hmmm.I've found out that it is very difficult to lose money with this strategy,and i am good in losing money.
Must try harder,did only 3 trebles with 10 euro each,all trebles lost,but bank is the same.
Nice!

Good turbo. Nice to see someone is making use of it. I haven't done any since Saturday. LOL!